using LinearAlgebra, Random, Statistics
include("conjugate.jl"); include("model.jl"); include("accounting.jl")

Random.seed!(2026)
d = simulate(156)                    # three years of weekly data, 8 weeks without bidding
P = posteriors(d)
draws = [account_draw(P) for _ in 1:4000]

r(x) = round(x, digits = 2)
t = truth()
for f in keys(t)
    x = getfield.(draws, f)
    println(rpad(f, 16), "truth ", rpad(r(getfield(t, f)), 6), " mean ", rpad(r(mean(x)), 6),
            " [", r(quantile(x, 0.05)), ", ", r(quantile(x, 0.95)), "]")
end